THE LONG-RUN IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL ASIA: EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN AND KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

This thesis investigates how trade openness shapes long-run economic growth in Central Asia through a focused comparison of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Trade openness—commonly proxied by the ratio of exports plus imports to GDP—can raise growth by enlarging markets, improving resource allocation, intensifying competition, and enabling technology diffusion through imported capital goods. Yet it can also transmit external shocks, deepen import dependence, and lock economies into narrow export structures if diversification and institutions lag.